The relationship between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi no longer resembles what it was a decade ago, when both operated under the United States’ banner in the war on Yemen. Today, although the two sides continue to play the same functional role in serving the American-Israeli project in the region, they are increasingly locked in a struggle over regional and economic influence, maneuvering within the geopolitical latitude that Washington allows. What was once hidden has become unmistakably visible in recent months through military, political, and economic movements that reveal an alarming level of exposure.

Hadhramaut: The Tip of the Iceberg

Hadhramaut, with its oil wealth representing 60% of Yemen’s production and its strategic location overlooking the Arabian Sea, has long been the focal point of Saudi-Emirati ambitions and an arena for their early collisions.

For decades, Riyadh viewed Hadhramaut as its strategic passage to the Arabian Sea and an indispensable geopolitical backyard. It worked to recruit tribal and political figures and granted Saudi citizenship to dozens of Yemeni Hadhrami leaders in steps observers saw as gradual preparation for a permanent presence on the open coasts — and for paving the ground for a direct occupation. With the onset of the war on Yemen, Riyadh backed "Shield of the Nation and Protection of Hadhramaut" forces under the banners of “self-governance” to preserve a military and political foothold.

In contrast, the UAE pushed aggressively into southern provinces, creating military formations directly loyal to Abu Dhabi and adopting calls for dividing Yemen into competing entities. Reports from the "Washington Institute for Near East Studies” estimate these militias at 60,000–90,000 fighters in southern Yemen. The Emirati project has become clearer with its support for the Southern Transitional Council and effective control over Aden and vital southern coastlines.

The most dangerous development is unfolding now, as Abu Dhabi sends military reinforcements toward Hadhramaut in an attempt to impose full Emirati dominance over the governorate and encircle Saudi Arabia from its southern maritime flank. Riyadh, meanwhile, bolsters its own parallel forces in what resembles a partition of a dying body — reinforcing what Sana'a has long warned: that the underlying objective of this coalition from day one has been to divide Yemen into parallel and competing entities under American supervision, sponsorship, and engineering.

Sudan: An Extension of Geopolitical Rivalry

In Sudan, disagreements have escalated into armed conflict, with Abu Dhabi supporting the Rapid Support Forces led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo Hemedti, while Riyadh backs the regular army under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

Sudan faces Saudi Arabia across a vast stretch of the Red Sea coast. The UAE’s involvement there extends beyond exploiting gold and agricultural resources; it establishes a direct geopolitical threat to Saudi Arabia across the water. Riyadh views an active Emirati presence not merely as an economic investment but as a pressure tool.

Mid-last year, the BBC reported — citing Western diplomatic sources — that Riyadh asked Washington to impose sanctions on the UAE over its arming of Rapid Support Forces. American reports revealed a direct Saudi request, marking an unprecedented level of tension between the two allies within international political arenas.

Economy: A War Over Headquarters and Markets

Saudi Arabia’s launch of Vision 2030 signaled its intention to shift from an oil-producing state to a regional business hub, challenging the long-dominant Abu Dhabi-Dubai model. A central decision required international companies to relocate their regional headquarters to Riyadh in order to secure government contracts by 2024.

A total of 571 global companies — including Amazon, Google, and Microsoft — complied, while the UAE saw a 31% drop in new projects. Abu Dhabi responded by removing customs advantages for Saudi products from free zones and imposing restrictions on Saudi investments.

On the oil front within OPEC+, the UAE has exceeded its agreed-upon production quotas by 200,000–300,000 barrels per day, pressuring oil prices and undermining Saudi Arabia's revenue strategies. Abu Dhabi justifies this by citing massive investments in expanding production capacity, while Riyadh sees it as destabilizing the market and crippling its ability to finance Vision 2030.

Every OPEC+ meeting has thus become a test of how the two manage their conflicting visions — Saudi stability versus Emirati expansionist output.

Another renewed front of contention emerged in April 2024, when the UAE declared the waters surrounding Al Yasat "Island" a protected maritime zone. Riyadh dismissed the move as invalid and lodged a formal complaint with the UN Security Council, considering it an attempt to impose a fait accompli in a sensitive Gulf area and a maritime expansion threatening critical sea lines.

Under the U.S. Umbrella: The Game of Margins

Despite these clashes, both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi remain actors operating within permitted American margins. They belong to the same camp and serve the same project, but the competition to be Washington’s exclusive favorite now pushes them toward open confrontation: Saudi Arabia seeking to brand itself as the symbol of regional stability, and the UAE presenting itself as a more flexible and effective financial and military center.

Developments in Sudan, OPEC+, and regional waters are not temporary disputes but the crystallization of long-buried ambitions and systematic fragmentation schemes targeting Arab states, especially Yemen and Sudan. All of this unfolds under a U.S. cover that uses both sides as competing tools rather than complementary allies.

Consequences of the Conflict

The continuation of this rivalry means deeper fragmentation in Yemen. As competition over Hadhramaut and the south persists, parallel entities will entrench themselves, and new borders will become a de facto reality. The picture is no different in Sudan, where Saudi-Emirati conflict fuels the war, blocks comprehensive political solutions, and prolongs devastation indefinitely.

The ongoing oil confrontation signals enduring discord that may threaten the oil bloc and undermine energy prices — all while remaining under American control. Escalating maritime disputes heighten the risk of armed border conflicts.

The coalition, once promoted as the Gulf’s most cohesive, is now moving along diverging paths that threaten the stability of Arab nations and serve the Zionist Project aimed at tearing apart the region. Yemenis, who have witnessed their country fragmented by this coalition, now recognize that the project was never anything but a systematic dismantling — and that today’s dispute is merely a division of spoils between two occupying partners competing to serve the American agenda and racing to fulfill its objectives.