The military record of the United States in recent decades is characterized by a striking phenomenon: while Washington possesses the most advanced arsenal in human history, the results of its wars often end in strategic losses that contradict its battlefield superiority. From the jungles of Vietnam to the mountains of Afghanistan and the deserts of Iraq, the US has found itself trapped in a cycle of asymmetric wars, succeeding in dominating the enemy's military power within days, only to become bogged down for years in dealing with aftermath plans and popular resistance. This ultimately leads to forced withdrawals that leave behind a vacuum and a failure to achieve declared geopolitical objectives, making the concept of American victory appear pale and lost amidst exorbitant human and material costs.
Epstein Changes Trump's Principles:
The weight of those defeats is what drove Trump to adopt the "the US First" concept in his three presidential campaigns, as well as the "No to Wars" stance. In his second inaugural address, he said, "I will not start wars, I will stop wars." He repeatedly attacked the American endless wars in the Middle East, arguing that they had diverted its attention from confronting the threat of Chinese expansion. This led American circles to conclude that Trump contradicted his principles under Israeli pressure exerted by Netanyahu. Observers do not rule out the possibility that the Epstein files were intended to push him into waging this war, and that the timing of their release was not innocent.
Ammunition Shortfall Prevents Swift Victory:
With the launch of the aggression against Iran last Saturday, the criminal Trump wagered on a swift victory that would take no more than four days. This victory was envisioned through an assassination operation coordinated with the Israeli entity, targeting the Supreme Leader and top commanders. He mistakenly believed that the absence of the head would lead to the collapse of the body. However, the reality on the ground has begun to shatter these expectations. Iran is not a paper state that collapses with the departure of its leader; rather, it is an ideological and military system that relies on decentralized leadership, a doctrine of jihadist defense, and the concept of sacred martyrdom.
The Washington Post reported that deep concerns are emerging within the corridors of American decision-making about sliding into a protracted war. It added that these anxieties extend beyond the issue of direct human losses, touching upon the very core of American military capabilities: air defense stockpiles. This comes amidst an atmosphere described as fraught with suspicion in Washington. The newspaper quoted informed sources as saying that there is growing concern among senior military leaders that the fighting could continue for weeks, further straining already limited American air defense stockpiles.
Trump was not listening to the advice given to the White House by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Keane, that the shortage of ammunition and the lack of broad military support from allies would add significant risks to any operation in Iran, and to American personnel at risk.
Iran: Trump's Crushing Dilemma:
The danger of a confrontation with Iran for the US lies in its transcending the boundaries of conventional warfare to become a complete strategic suicide. The American military machine would first encounter a deadly geography, rugged mountainous terrain, and a vast expanse of 1.5 million square kilometers, making any ground invasion a logistical nightmare that dwarfs the Tora Bora campaign. Adding to the complexity is the encounter between the American soldier and a unique jihadist and martyrdom ideology, where the Iranian fighter seeks death as the ultimate goal, transforming every point on land and sea into a theater of attrition and daily human bloodshed that Washington's political calculations cannot tolerate.
The dilemma doesn't stop at geographical boundaries; it extends to ignite a comprehensive regional conflagration through a strategy that has placed American bases and embassies at the mercy of drones and missiles launched simultaneously from multiple locations. This includes the use of energy as a weapon by strangling the Strait of Hormuz and striking oil facilities, causing fuel prices to skyrocket and plunging the American economy into the grip of inflation. These factors combined paint a picture of the most devastating historical defeat, one that could end the era of hegemony forever.
Successive American presidents, from Carter to Biden, have avoided engaging in a full-scale confrontation with Iran not out of a love for peace, but because strategic calculations have consistently indicated that the cost of war is far bigger than the price of coexisting with the threat, in addition to the fear that other actors, such as China and Russia, would benefit.
China is watching from the sidelines:
China sees Washington's quagmire in Iran as a golden opportunity to bolster its global rise without firing a single shot. It is watching with a smile as the US strategic stockpile of smart munitions and interceptor missiles is depleted, weakening American military readiness in the Pacific and opening a historic opening for Beijing to deepen its influence around Taiwan and the South China Sea.
While the US military machine is preoccupied with hunting drones over the Middle East, China is exploiting this situation to present itself as a rational international power and an alternative to American hegemony. It is simultaneously benefiting from intelligence and field data on the performance of American weapons against Eastern technology. From the Chinese perspective, Iran has become a testing ground that will exhaust its American adversary and shorten its path to global dominance.
Russia is reaping the benefits:
As for Russia, the escalation of the Iranian conflict represents a geopolitical lifeline and an unexpected gift to strengthen its position in the Ukraine war. The significant surge in global energy prices is injecting billions of dollars into the Russian treasury, ensuring the continued operation of its military machine despite Western sanctions.
As Washington’s military and political focus shifted toward the black hole in the region, Western support for Kyiv began to falter in the face of ammunition shortages and new priorities, giving Putin enough room to decide the battlefield battles in Ukraine and establish himself as an indispensable power, turning the expected American defeat in Iran into an indirect victory for Moscow, which sees the exhaustion of the common enemy as the beginning of the end of the unipolar era and the emergence of a multipolar world led by it and its allies.
Washington... A Certain Loss:
Ultimately, it seems that Washington under Trump has failed to learn from recent history, choosing instead to gamble with Benjamin Netanyahu, under the illusion of a swift victory promoted by the White House. Now, it is rapidly becoming an unstoppable strategic drain.
If Vietnam shattered Washington's pride, Afghanistan drained its economy, and Iraq exposed its impotence and failure, then the current confrontation with Iran is poised to be the most devastating defeat in its history. It not only ends the ambitions of a president or administration, but also threatens to bring an end to a century of American unipolarity.
What awaits Trump is not merely a regional defeat, but a global one.
