The current oil and gas crisis triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran and subsequently Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is "more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2002 together," the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.
Speaking with French newspaper Le Figaro, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the world has "never experienced a disruption to energy supply of such magnitude."
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of the world's oil flows, has been effectively closed since the United States and "Israel" launched their war on Iran on February 28. Iran has maintained that the Strait remains open to non-hostile vessels that coordinate with Tehran, while ships linked to the aggressors and their allies remain blocked.
Developing nations hardest hit
Birol said the countries most at risk were developing nations whose populations will be hard-hit by higher oil and gas prices, rising food prices, and the general ramping up of inflation across global economies.
The warning comes as IEA member countries agreed last month to release part of their strategic reserves amid the blockade. Birol said some of this had already been released, but added that the process was still underway.
Rolling shockwave moving westward
The IEA chief's warning comes as a JPMorgan report released last week detailed how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating a "rolling supply disruption moving westward." The last oil tanker departed the strait on February 28, the day the US-Israeli war on Iran began. Those final shipments have now largely dried up.
Southeast Asia has been hit hardest. "The primary challenge has shifted from price to physical scarcity," according to the report, which cited a 41 percent month-on-month fall in oil exports to the region. The impact is no longer about rising costs alone; it is about whether oil is available at all.
Africa will be next, with the impact growing larger by early April. Early signs of stress are already emerging, with Kenya experiencing fuel shortages at the retail level.
Europe will likely feel the impact by mid-April, though it has the advantage of a strong inventory buffer and alternative Atlantic Basin supply. The United States will be last to feel the blow, according to the report, though California is particularly vulnerable to supply challenges.
A crisis of Washington's making
The energy shock now threatening developing economies is a direct consequence of the US-Israeli war on Iran. While Washington has focused on constant military escalation and threats of further aggression, the global energy system has been thrown into chaos.
As JPMorgan's analysis makes clear, the shockwave from the US-Israeli war is moving westward, leaving a trail of economic instability in its wake. And while Western capitals may have the reserves to buffer the blow temporarily, the same cannot be said for developing nations already struggling under the weight of a war they had no part in starting.
The path to a full restoration of stability, as Iran has made clear, runs through an end to military aggression, a halt to threats, and full respect for Iran's legitimate interests. Until then, the world will continue to feel the pain of a crisis that Washington chose to create and refuses to end. The IEA chief's warning that the world has never seen anything like this should serve as a wake-up call. But with Trump's threats escalating and his Tuesday deadline approaching, there is little sign that Washington is ready to listen.
Source:Websites
