Kyle Shostak, director of Navigator Principal Investors, told RIA Novosti that global oil markets will experience chaotic fluctuations in the near future as a direct result of the US-Israeli war on Iran. He predicted that prices would swing within a range of $95 to $120 per barrel.

"My reading of the situation is that the Trump administration is hopeful that the blockade of the Iranian oil supplies, a big amount of which is going to China, will incentivize Beijing to convince its counterparts in Tehran to agree to a new round of meaningful negotiations," Shostak said. "Before then, the oil will continue to behave chaotically in the range of $95 to $120 per barrel."

He believes that the upper price level for Brent oil will be around $115 to $120 per barrel.

The investor did not express optimism about a near-term resolution of the US-Israeli war on Iran and warned of a potential new escalation in the region that would further impact global oil prices.

"Despite the market at the moment seems to be somewhat prematurely seduced by the de-escalation scenario, betting on the resumption of the US-Iran negotiations, and even more naive hopes to resume the traffic through the Hormuz Strait, I am at the opinion that a more realistic expectation will involve a repetition of the military actions, one way or another, albeit on a more reduced scale," Shostak added.

The US investor said his reading of the situation suggests that the Trump administration hopes the blockade of Iranian oil supplies, a significant portion of which flows to China, will incentivize Beijing to persuade Iranian authorities to agree to a new round of meaningful negotiations. Until that happens, Shostak said, oil will continue to behave chaotically within the $95 to $120 range. He believes the upper price level for Brent crude will settle around $115 to $120 per barrel.

Rolling shockwave moving westward

This comes weeks after a JPMorgan report was released, detailing how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating a "rolling supply disruption moving westward." The last oil tanker departed the strait on February 28, the day the US-Israeli war on Iran began. Those final shipments have now largely dried up.

Southeast Asia has been hit hardest. "The primary challenge has shifted from price to physical scarcity," according to the report, which cited a 41 percent month-on-month fall in oil exports to the region. The impact is no longer about rising costs alone; it is about whether oil is available at all. It predicted that Africa would be next, with the impact growing larger by early April. It also projected that Europe would likely feel the impact by mid-April, though it has the advantage of a strong inventory buffer and alternative Atlantic Basin supply. The United States will be last to feel the blow, according to the report, though California is particularly vulnerable to supply challenges.

A crisis of Washington's making

The energy shock now threatening developing economies is a direct consequence of the US-Israeli war on Iran. While Washington has focused on constant military escalation and threats of further aggression, the global energy system has been thrown into chaos.

As JPMorgan's analysis makes clear, the shockwave from the US-Israeli war is moving westward, leaving a trail of economic instability in its wake. And while Western capitals may have the reserves to buffer the blow temporarily, the same cannot be said for developing nations already struggling under the weight of a war they had no part in starting.

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