Global oil markets saw a sharp downturn, with Brent crude falling 11.7% to $97 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sliding 13% to $88.90 per barrel. Brent last traded below the $100 mark nearly two weeks ago.
The declines continue to reflect growing sensitivity in energy markets to geopolitical developments, particularly around the current aggression against Iran. According to CNN, the White House appears to be optimistic about a deal between the two countries that would end the war. Iran, however, did not issue any statement about any agreement.
Prices had already begun to fall earlier when US President Donald Trump announced a pause in "Project Freedom," only a day after it was launched, citing alleged progress toward a deal with Tehran.
The oil market reacted quickly to the possibility that easing tensions could improve global supply flows and reduce disruption risks.
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments. Any easing of tensions in the region tends to influence market expectations about supply security.
The sharp swing in oil prices could also be read less as an organic market reaction and more as politically driven volatility. After prices spiked earlier in the week, the Trump administration’s sudden shift, from escalation to hints of a deal, helped push markets downward just as quickly.
This pattern of abrupt policy signals and contradictory messaging raises the possibility of deliberate narrative shaping to influence energy markets, rather than a stable or credible diplomatic trajectory.
Analysts remain divided on deal durability
Market analysts remain cautious about the likelihood of a lasting agreement.
Bob Yawger, director of futures trading at Mizuho Securities in the United States, expressed skepticism about the prospects of a durable deal. “I am skeptical about an agreement for sure. We’ve been down this road before, and it’s fallen apart,” he told CNN.
However, he also noted a more optimistic short-term scenario for energy markets if a deal is finalized, suggesting that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could resume quickly once an agreement is in place.
Trump escalates threats again
Meanwhile, despite pausing "Project Freedom", Trump then threatened Iran with military aggression if a deal is not achieved, echoing stances that previously obstructed talks.
Trump declared that "the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end," provided that Tehran agrees to what has been agreed to, though he conceded that this was "perhaps a big assumption."
"If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before," the US president wrote on Truth Social.
Trump’s remarks underscore a stark escalation in rhetoric that blends conditional diplomacy with explicit threats of force, effectively tying de-escalation to unilateral demands placed on Tehran.
By framing the lifting of a naval blockade as contingent on Iranian compliance, while simultaneously warning of intensified bombing, the statement narrows the space for negotiation and reinforces a coercive approach to crisis management.
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